Search for: All records

Abstract. Fire is the dominant disturbance agent in Alaskan and Canadianboreal ecosystems and releases large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere.Burned area and carbon emissions have been increasing with climate change,which have the potential to alter the carbon balance and shift the regionfrom a historic sink to a source. It is therefore critically important totrack the spatiotemporal changes in burned area and fire carbon emissionsover time. Here we developed a new burned-area detection algorithm between2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 m (meters) resolution thatutilizes finer-scale 30 m Landsat imagery to account for land coverunsuitable for burning. This method strictly balances omission andcommission errors at 500 m to derive accurate landscape- and regional-scaleburned-area estimates. Using this new burned-area product, we developedstatistical models to predict burn depth and carbon combustion for the sameperiod within the NASA Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) coreand extended domain. Statistical models were constrained using a database offield observations across the domain and were related to a variety ofresponse variables including remotely sensed indicators of fire severity,fire weather indices, local climate, soils, and topographic indicators. Theburn depth and aboveground combustion models performed best, with poorerperformance for belowground combustion. We estimate 2.37×106 ha (2.37 Mha) burned annually between 2001–2019 over the ABoVE domain (2.87 Mhaacross all of Alaska and Canada), emitting 79.3 ± 27.96 Tg (±1standard deviation) of carbon (C) per year, with a mean combustionrate of 3.13 ± 1.17 kg C m−2. Mean combustion and burn depthdisplayed a general gradient of higher severity in the northwestern portionof the domain to lower severity in the south and east. We also found larger-fire years and later-season burning were generally associated with greatermean combustion. Our estimates are generally consistent with previousefforts to quantify burned area, fire carbon emissions, and their drivers inregions within boreal North America; however, we generally estimate higherburned area and carbon emissions due to our use of Landsat imagery, greateravailability of field observations, and improvements in modeling. The burnedarea and combustion datasets described here (the ABoVE Fire EmissionsDatabase, or ABoVE-FED) can be used for local- to continental-scaleapplications of boreal fire science. 

Intensifying wildfire activity and climate change can drive rapid forest compositional shifts. In boreal North America, black spruce shapes forest flammability and depends on fire for regeneration. This relationship has helped black spruce maintain its dominance through much of the Holocene. However, with climate change and more frequent and severe fires, shifts away from black spruce dominance to broadleaf or pine species are emerging, with implications for ecosystem functions including carbon sequestration, water and energy fluxes, and wildlife habitat. Here, we predict that such reductions in black spruce after fire may already be widespread given current trends in climate and fire. To test this, we synthesize data from 1,538 field sites across boreal North America to evaluate compositional changes in tree species following 58 recent fires (1989 to 2014). While black spruce was resilient following most fires (62%), loss of resilience was common, and spruce regeneration failed completely in 18% of 1,140 black spruce sites. In contrast, postfire regeneration never failed in forests dominated by jack pine, which also possesses an aerial seed bank, or broad-leaved trees. More complete combustion of the soil organic layer, which often occurs in better-drained landscape positions and in dryer duff, promoted compositional changes throughout boreal North America. Forests in western North America, however, were more vulnerable to change due to greater long-term climate moisture deficits. While we find considerable remaining resilience in black spruce forests, predicted increases in climate moisture deficits and fire activity will erode this resilience, pushing the system toward a tipping point that has not been crossed in several thousand years. 

Abstract Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.